Platonova T.A.1,2, Golubkova A.A.1,3, Obabkov V.N.4,5, Kolesnikova S.Yu.5, Suranova T.G.6, Smirnova S.S.1,3

Federal State Educational Institution of Higher Education “Ural State Medical University” of the Ministry of Health of Russia, Ekaterinburg, Russian Federation

Limited Liability Company “European Medical Centre “UMMC-Health”, Ekaterinburg, Russian Federation

Federal Budgetary Institution of Science “Ekaterinburg Scientific Research Institute of Viral Infections” of Rospotrebnadzor, Yekaterinburg, Russian Federation

Federal State Autonomous Educational Institution of Higher Professional Education “Ural Federal University named after First President of Russia B.N.Yeltsin”, Ekaterinburg, Russian Federation

Limited Liability Company “European-Asian Medical Company”, Ekaterinburg, Russian Federation

Federal State Budgetary Institution “All-Russian Centre for Disaster Medicine “Zaschita” of Health Ministry of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation

UDK 616-036.22-084:615.371:614.47

Pp. 50–55

Based on the simulation mathematical model of measles epidemic process in a metropolis, the prognosis of the situation in the near and long term is given, the methods of infection control relevant at the stage of its elimination are determined.

The use of a risk-oriented approach to the prognosis of measles infection enables us to state: the existing system of epidemiological control of measles in a metropolis – is imperfect and requires optimization, which involves monitoring the timeliness and completeness of vaccination coverage of children in the “indicator” groups – at least 95%; maintaining a high immune layer of the population as a whole – at least at 90%; revaccination against measles every 10 years at least of 80-90% of the population, not previously affected by measles.


Key wordsepidemiological well-being, measles, megapolis, forecast, risk-oriented approach, simulation mathematical model


For citation: Platonova T.A., Golubkova A.A., Obabkov V.N., Kolesnikova S.Yu., Suranova T.G., Smirnova S.S., (Risk-Oriented Approach to Ensuring Epidemiological Well-Being of Territory on Example of Measles), Disaster Medicine, 2019; 1(105): 50–55 (In Rus.).




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