DISASTER MEDICINE No. 3 •2026

doi: 10.33266/2070-1004-2026-3

IN ORDER OF DISCUSSION

Original article

Method of Forecasting Statistical Indicators of the Medical Service Work during Combat Operations in Conditions of the Enemy Using Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

Goncharov S.F. 1,2, Borodenko V.V. 3, Goryutskiy V.N. 3, Potapov V.A. 3, Vlasov V.V. 3, Baranova N.N. 1,2, Ryzhikov M.A. 4

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¹ State Research Center – Burnasyan Federal Medical Biophysical Center of Federal Medical Biological Agency, Moscow, Russian Federation

2 Russian Medical Academy of Continuous Professional Education, the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation

3 Russian University of Medicine of the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation

4 Sechenov University of the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation

UDC 614.2:311:355.72:623.74-52

P. 124-129

 

Summary. The purpose of the study is to improve and substantiate the methodology for calculating probable sanitary losses and other statistical indicators of the work of the medical service during combat operations in conditions of the use of unmanned aerial vehicles by the enemy, based on a comparative study of the experience of modern military conflicts and the local armed conflict in Ukraine.

Materials and methods of the study. Materials of the study – regulatory, legal and methodological documents defining the calculations of statistical indicators of the work of the medical service, probable sanitary losses, “increasing coefficient”, the volume, terms and procedure for providing first aid and pre-medical medical care.

Methods of the study: analytical, statistical, direct observation method.

Results of the study and their analysis. The results of the study are expressed in a new formula developed by us for calculating probable sanitary losses and other statistical indicators of the work of the medical service in conditions of the use of UAVs by the enemy. The proposed “increasing coefficient” for these calculations takes into account the standard share of time spent on providing first (and- or pre-medical) medical aid, the forced increase in the time of providing aid as a result of failure to comply with the established terms for providing first (and- or pre-medical) medical aid. The “increasing coefficient” for calculating the statistical indicators of the work of the medical service taking into account the use of UAVs by the enemy is universal for calculating personnel losses and other statistical indicators from any type of weapon, which makes it convenient to use. At the same time, we emphasize that the proposed version of calculations in conditions of the use of UAVs by the enemy requires practical testing and expert assessment of specialists.

Key words: “increasing coefficient”, first aid, forecasting methodology, local armed conflict, medical care, medical service, military operations, pre-hospital medical care, probable sanitary losses, statistical indicators, unmanned aerial vehicles

For citation: Goncharov S.F., Borodenko V.V., Goryutskiy V.N., Potapov V.A., Vlasov V.V., Baranova N.N., Ryzhikov M.A. Method of Forecasting Statistical Indicators of the Medical Service Work during Combat Operations in Conditions of the Enemy Using Unmanned Aerial Vehicles. Meditsina Katastrof = Disaster Medicine. 2026;3:124-129 (In Russ.). Doi:10.33266/2070-1004-2026-3-124-129

 

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The material was received 28.05.26; the article after peer review procedure 23.08.26; the Editorial Board accepted the article for publication 16.09.26
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