DISASTER MEDICINE No. 1 •2026

https://doi.org/10.33266/2070-1004-2026-1

Original article

Characteristics of Killed People in Armed Conflicts in the World, 2015–2024

Pluzhnik M.S. 1, Evdokimov V.I. 1, Rybnikov V.Y. 1, Chernov K.A. 2

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1 Nikiforov Russian Center of Emergency and Radiation Medicine, EMERCOM of Russia, St. Petersburg, Russian Federation

2 Civil Defence Academy, EMERCOM of Russia, Khimki, Moscow region, Russian Federation

UDC 314.15«2015/2024»

P. 35-41

 

Summary. The aim is to analyze deaths in armed conflicts in regions of the world over the past 10 years from 2015 to 2024.
Research materials and methods. The object of the study was the electronic database on armed conflicts UCDP/PRIO [https://ucdp.uu.se/]. The indicators of armed conflicts and deaths in them were calculated by region (Europe, Asia, America, Africa and the Middle East). Statistical processing of the results was carried out in Microsoft Excel 2007 spreadsheets. The dynamics of the indicators were assessed with using the analysis of dynamic series and the calculation of a second-order polynomial trend.
Research results and their analysis. 1,754 armed conflicts were recorded in the world over 10 years (2015–2024), including 557 (31.8%) state and 792 (45.2%) non-state. 1 million 489.3 thousand people died in armed conflicts, 1 million 187.2 thousand (79.7%) in state and 213 thousand (14.3%) in non-state conflicts. There is a trend towards an increase in the number of armed conflicts in the world and the number of people killed in them. The number of combatants killed in state conflicts was 81.2%, civilians – 11.5%, unidentified persons – 7.3%, and in non-state conflicts – 25.4%, 6.5 and 68.1%, respectively. The average annual individual risk of dying as a result of armed conflicts in the world was 19.3 · 10–6 deaths/(person year ), including 15.3 · 10–6 in state conflicts and 2.7 · 10–6 deaths/(person year ) in non-state conflicts. The number of deaths can be extrapolated to sanitary losses and, thus, optimize the forces and resources of disaster medicine.

Key words: armed conflict, death, fatalities, individual risk of death, irreparable losses, non-state armed conflicts, Peace Research Institute Oslo, region of the world, state armed conflicts, the world as a whole, Uppsala Conflict Data Program, wars

For citation: Pluzhnik M.S., Evdokimov V.I., Rybnikov V.Y., Chernov K.A. Characteristics of Killed People in Armed Conflicts in the World, 2015–2024. Meditsina Katastrof = Disaster Medicine. 2026;1:35-41 (In Russ.). doi: 10.33266/2070-1004-2026-1-35-41

 

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The material was received 09.10.25; the article after peer review procedure 10.01.26; the Editorial Board accepted the article for publication 16.03.26
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