DISASTER MEDICINE No. 2 •2024

https://doi.org/10.33266/2070-1004-2024-2

Original article

Analysis of Risks of Terrorism for the Population of a Several Countries and the World Population in General, 2011–2020

Evdokimov V.I.1, Shulenin N.S.2

Download the article in pdf format

1 Nikiforov Russian Center of Emergency and Radiation Medicine of EMERCOM of Russia, St. Petersburg, Russian Federation

2 Saint Petersburg Medico-Social Institute, St. Petersburg, Russian Federation

UDC 614.8-052:323.28

Pp. 11-16

Summary. The objectives of the study are to study the risk indicators of terrorism for the population of a number of countries and the world population as a whole, as well as their dynamics in 2011–2020 in order to determine the average annual risk of being exposed to a terrorist attack, dying or being harmed to life and health.

Materials and methods of research. Research materials – indicators of the open Global Terrorism Database (GTD), which was created, continues to be created and improved by employees of the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) of the University of Maryland (University of Maryland) – USA.

Research results and their analysis:

– according to GTD, on average over 10 years (2011–2020) 110 thousand TA were indexed in the world, in which 258.4 thousand people died, including 70 thousand terrorists (27.1%), and 284.2 thousand people were injured (injured), including 18 thousand terrorists (6.7%);

– for the world population, the average annual individual risk was: the risk of being exposed to a terrorist attack – 1.49´10–6 or 1.41 [1.11; 1.89]´10–6 TA/(person ´ year); risk of death – 2.55 ´ 10–6 or 2.29 [1.94; 3.16] ´ 10–6 deaths/(person year); the risk of being hit (injured) – 3.63 ´ 10–6 or 3.32 [2.21; 5.18] ´ 10–6 injuries/(person ´ year);

– all of the increased risks studied occurred in Afghanistan. In addition, there was an increased risk of being exposed to a terrorist attack in Ukraine. In other countries, the risks of health losses from terrorism were optimal.

Key words: population of a number of countries, risks of terrorism, terrorism, terrorist acts, world population as a whole

For citation: Evdokimov V.I., Shulenin N.S. Analysis of Risks of Terrorism for the Population of a Several Countries and the World Population in General, 2011–2020. Meditsina Katastrof = Disaster Medicine. 2024;2:11-16 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.33266/2070-1004-2024-2-11-16

 

REFERENCES

  1. GTD Global Terrorism Database. Codebook: Methodology, Inclusion Criteria, and Variables. College Park: START, 2021. 63 p.
  2. Evdokimov V.I., Shulenin N.S. Terrorism and its Global Biomedical Consequences (2011 to 2020). Medico-Biological and Socio-Psychological Problems of Safety in Emergency Situations. 2024;1:14–33. DOI: 10.25016/2541-7487-2024-0-1-14-33. (In Russ.)
  3. Tin D., Hart A., Ciottone G.R. A Decade of Terrorism in the United States and the Emergence of Counter-Terrorism Medicine. Prehosp. Disaster. Med. 2021;36(4):380–384. DOI: 10.1017/S1049023X21000558.
  4. Tin D., Hart A., Ciottone G.R. Terrorism in China and the Emerging Needs for Counter- Terrorism Medicine Following a Decade of Deaths and Injuries. Prehosp. Disaster Med. 2021;36(3):270–275. DOI: 10.1017/S1049023X21000170.
  5. Tin D., Hart A., Hertelendy A.J, Ciottone G.R. Terrorism in Australia: A Decade of Escalating Deaths and Injuries Supporting the Need for Counter-Terrorism Medicine. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2021;36(3):265–269. DOI: 10.1017/S1049023X21000157.
  6. Shin H., Hertelendy A.J., Hart A. [et al.]. Terrorism-Related Attacks in East Asia from 1970 through 2020. Prehosp. Disaster Med. 2023;38(2):232–236. DOI: 10.1017/S1049023X23000109.
  7. Kul’nev S.V., Shelepov A.M., Lemeshkin R.N. The Organization of Anti-Terrorist Actions for Safety of the Personnel and Patients in the Military and Medical Organization. Mediko-Biologicheskie i Social’no-Psikhologicheskiye Problemy Bezopasnosti v Chrezvychaynykh Situatsiyakh = Medico-Biological and Socio-Psychological Problems of Safety in Emergency Situations. 2014;3:49–57. (In Russ.)
  8. Pashchenko I.V. The Global Terrorism Index and the Situation in the North Caucasus: Global Trends and Regional Features. Natsional’naya Bezopasnost’ = National Security / Nota Bene. 2013;6:94–104. DOI: 10.7256/2073-8560.2013.6.10257. (In Russ.)
  9. Bobiy B.V. Towards an Assessment of the Severity of Human Casualties in Terrorist Acts Committed by Conventional Means of Destruction. Meditsina Katastrof = Disaster Medicine. 2023;4:5–10. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.33266/2070-1004-2023-4-5-10.
  10. Goncharov S.F., Fisun A.Ya., Sakhno I.I., et al. Zadachi i Organizatsiya Deyatel’nosti Vserossiyskoy Sluzhby Meditsiny Katastrof – Funktsional’noy Podsistemy Yedinoy Gosudarstvennoy Sistemy Preduprezhdeniya i Likvidatsii Chrezvychaynykh Situatsiy = Tasks and Organization of Activities of the All-Russian Disaster Medicine Service – a Functional Subsystem of the Unified State Emergency Prevention and Response System. Ed. S.F. Goncharov. Moscow Publ., 2016. 114 p. (In Russ.)
  11. Shulenin N.S., Lemeshkin R.N., Efremov A.A., Pytskyy D.E. Approaches to Modelling the Possible Number of Individuals Rescued in the Area of Terrorist Attacks Worldwide until 2030. Mediko-Biologicheskie i Social’no-Psikhologicheskiye Problemy Bezopasnosti v Chrezvychaynykh Situatsiyakh = Medicо-Biological and Socio-Psychological Problems of Safety in Emergency Situations. 2023;3:98–105. DOI: 10.25016/2541-7487-2023-0-3-98-105. (In Russ.)
  12. Miller E., Wingenroth B. Global Terrorism Database: Real-time Data Collection Pilot Evaluation. College Park: START, 2023. 20 p.
  13. Akimov V.A. Obshhaya Teoriya Bezopasnosti Zhiznedeyatel’nosti v Sovremennoy Nauchnoy Kartine Mira = The General Theory of Life Safety in the Modern Scientific Picture of the World. Moscow Publ., 2018. 136 p. (In Russ.)
  14.  Hyslop D., Morgan T. Measuring Terrorism with the Global Terrorism Index. Understanding Terrorism (Contributions to Conflict Management, Peace Economics and Development). 2014;22:97–114. DOI: 10.1108/S1572-8323(2014)0000022010.
  15. Global Terrorism Index / Institute for Economics & Peace [Electronic resource]. 2011–2023. URL: http://visionofhumanity.org/report.
  16. Afanasyev V.N. Analiz Vremennykh Ryadov i Prognozirovaniye = Time Series Analysis and Forecasting. Saratov Publ., 2001. 306 p. (In Russ.)
  17. Panasenko V.N. Assessment of the Experience of Countering Extremismand Terrorism in the People’s Republic of China. Trudy Akademii Upravleniya MVD Rossii = Proceedings of the Management Academy of the Ministry of Interior of Russia. 2020;4:191–197 (In Russ.)

The material was received 13.02.24; the article after peer review procedure 10.06.24; the Editorial Board accepted the article for publication 19.06.24