Original article

Analysis of Risks of Terrorism for the Population of a Several Countries and the World Population in General, 2011–2020

Evdokimov V.I.1, Shulenin N.S.2

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1 Nikiforov Russian Center of Emergency and Radiation Medicine of EMERCOM of Russia, St. Petersburg, Russian Federation

2 Saint Petersburg Medico-Social Institute, St. Petersburg, Russian Federation

UDC 614.8-052:323.28

Pp. 11-16

Summary. The objectives of the study are to study the risk indicators of terrorism for the population of a number of countries and the world population as a whole, as well as their dynamics in 2011–2020 in order to determine the average annual risk of being exposed to a terrorist attack, dying or being harmed to life and health.

Materials and methods of research. Research materials – indicators of the open Global Terrorism Database (GTD), which was created, continues to be created and improved by employees of the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) of the University of Maryland (University of Maryland) – USA.

Research results and their analysis:

– according to GTD, on average over 10 years (2011–2020) 110 thousand TA were indexed in the world, in which 258.4 thousand people died, including 70 thousand terrorists (27.1%), and 284.2 thousand people were injured (injured), including 18 thousand terrorists (6.7%);

– for the world population, the average annual individual risk was: the risk of being exposed to a terrorist attack – 1.49´10–6 or 1.41 [1.11; 1.89]´10–6 TA/(person ´ year); risk of death – 2.55 ´ 10–6 or 2.29 [1.94; 3.16] ´ 10–6 deaths/(person year); the risk of being hit (injured) – 3.63 ´ 10–6 or 3.32 [2.21; 5.18] ´ 10–6 injuries/(person ´ year);

– all of the increased risks studied occurred in Afghanistan. In addition, there was an increased risk of being exposed to a terrorist attack in Ukraine. In other countries, the risks of health losses from terrorism were optimal.

Key words: population of a number of countries, risks of terrorism, terrorism, terrorist acts, world population as a whole

For citation: Evdokimov V.I., Shulenin N.S. Analysis of Risks of Terrorism for the Population of a Several Countries and the World Population in General, 2011–2020. Meditsina Katastrof = Disaster Medicine. 2024;2:11-16 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.33266/2070-1004-2024-2-11-16



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The material was received 13.02.24; the article after peer review procedure 10.06.24; the Editorial Board accepted the article for publication 19.06.24