Original article

Use of Different Computational Approaches to Modeling the Number of Sanitary Losses in Terrorist Acts in the World for the Period up to 2030

Shulenin N.S. 1, Lemeshkin R.N. 1, Fisun A.Ya. 2, Shulenin S.N. 1, Sorokin V.S. 3, Shatilo Yu.V. 1

Download the article in pdf format

1 Kirov Military Medical Academy of the Ministry of Defense of Russia, St. Petersburg, Russian Federation

2 Kirov Military Medical Academy of the Ministry of Defense of Russia, Moscow’s Branch, Moscow, Russian Federation

3 442nd Military Clinical Hospital of the Ministry of Defense of Russia, St. Petersburg, Russian Federation

UDC 004.94;341.33 (355.292)

Pp. 11-17

Summary. The aim of the study is to investigate and to justify the application of various computational approaches to forecasting the value of probable sanitary losses as a result of terrorist acts in the world for the period up to 2030.

Materials and research methods. Materials of the study were archival data of the generalized database (GTD, Global Terrorism Database), containing information on more than 200 thousand cases of terrorist activities registered in 1970-2020. The methods and ways of committing terrorist attacks, as well as the objects they were aimed at were analyzed. The forecast model of the probable sanitary losses as a result of terrorist acts was built for the period from 2021 to 2030 inclusive.
The data set was analyzed by various operators of MS Excel spreadsheet aggregator using the functions “FORECAST SHEET”, “FORECAST”, “TREND”, “GROWTH”, “LINEST” and “LOGEST “.

Results of the study and their analysis. It is observed that the number of probable sanitary losses due to terrorist attacks in the world may increase by 35.28% by 2030. The methods of committing terrorist acts most significant in the long term were identified. These are the use of explosives in the form of industrial and improvised explosive devices, as well as firearms, especially against the military and police. It is concluded: the obtained results of the study should be used to correct the established structure of the incoming flow of sanitary losses and to determine the optimal composition of multidepartmental medical forces and means necessary to eliminate medical and sanitary consequences of terrorist acts.

Keywords: calculation method, different computational approaches, forecasting, medical evacuation support, medical forces and means, modeling, number of sanitary losses, terrorist acts

Conflict of interest. The authors declare no conflict of interest

For citation: Shulenin N.S., Lemeshkin R.N., Fisun A.Ya., Shulenin S.N., Sorokin V.S., Shatilo Yu.V. Use of Different Computational Approaches to Modeling the Number of Sanitary Losses in Terrorist Acts in the World for the Period up to 2030. Meditsina Katastrof = Disaster Medicine. 2023;4:11-17 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.33266/2070-1004-2023-4-11-17



  1. Global Terrorism Database. https://www.start.umd.edu/gtd/
  2. Gary LaFree. Using Open Source Data to Track Worldwide Terrorism Patterns. Problems of Terrorism, Violent Extremism and Radicalization (Russian and American Approaches). Special issue. Ed. Stepanova Е.А. Мoscow, IMEMO RAN Publ., 2017. Pp. 64-76 (In Russ.). DOI: 10.20542/2307-1494-2017-1-64-76.
  3. Efremov A.A., Borisov D.N. Modern Approaches to the Use of Information Technologies in Assessing the Effectiveness of Organizing the Management of the Activities of Units of the Medical Service of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. Ekonomika, Menedzhment i Marketing v Voyennom i Grazhdanskom Zdravookhranenii = Economics, Management and Marketing in Military and Civilian Healthcare. Abstracts of Conference Reports, St. Petersburg, October 24, 2013. St. Petersburg, Military Medical Academy named after. S.M. Kirov Publ., 2014. Pp. 57-58 (In Russ.).
  4. Litvinchuk S.Yu. Informatsionnyye Tekhnologii v Ekonomike. Analiz i Prognozirovaniye Vremennykh Ryadov s Pomoshch’yu Excel: Uchebnoye Posobiye = Information Technologies in Economics. Time Series Analysis and Forecasting Using Excel: Tutorial. Nizhniy Novgorod Publ., 2010. 78 p. (In Russ.).
  5. Shulenin N.S., Lemeshkin R.N., Afim’ina K.G., Seremin M.S. Study of the Main Trends in the Group of Wounded and Affected by Terrorist Attacks from 2000 to 2020. Aktual’nyye Problemy Meditsinskogo Obespecheniya Voysk (Sil) = Current Problems of Medical Support for Troops (Forces). Collection of Materials of the All-Army Scientific and Practical Conference, St. Petersburg, November 25, 2022. St. Petersburg, Military Medical Academy named after. S.M. Kirov Publ., 2022. Pp. 127-135 (In Russ.).
  6. Titov I.G., Goncharov S.F., Bobiy B.V., Akin’shin A.V. Issues of Medical Triage of the Wounded in Acts of Terrorism. Meditsina Katastrof = Disaster Medicine. 2022;3:5–11 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.33266/2070-1004-2022-3-5-11
  7. Bobiy B.V., Goncharov S.F., Titov I.G. Main Conditions and Factors Affecting the Organization of Medical Care Delivery and Medical Evacuation in Terrorist Acts Involving Explosive Devices and Conventional Weapons. Meditsina Katastrof = Disaster Medicine. 2020;4:16-27 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.33266/2070-1004-2020-4-16-27
  8. Samokhvalov I.M., Goncharov A.V., Chirskiy V.S., Nosov A.M., Golovko K.P., Badmaev V.B., Chupryaev V.A. “Potentially Saveable” Wounded – a Reserve for Reducing Prehospital Mortality in Case of Wounds and Injuries. Skoraya Meditsinskaya Pomoshch’ = Emergency. 2019;3:10–17 (In Russ.).
  9. Savvin Yu.N., Shabanov V.Eh., Petlakh V.I. Structure of Sanitary Losses and Specifics of Medical Care to Population Affected by Hostilities in the Area of Local Armed Conflict. Meditsina Katastrof = Disaster Medicine, 2019;3:21–26 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.33266/2070-1004-2019-3-21-26
  10. Goncharov S.F., Fisun A.Ya., Sakhno I.I., et al. Zadachi i Organizatsiya Deyatel’nosti Vserossiyskoy Sluzhby Meditsiny Katastrof – Funktsional’noy Podsistemy Yedinoy Gosudarstvennoy Sistemy Preduprezhdeniya i Likvidatsii Chrezvychaynykh Situatsiy = Tasks and Organization of Activities of the All-Russian Disaster Medicine Service – a Functional Subsystem of the Unified State System for the Prevention and Elimination of Emergency Situations: Tutorial. Ed. Goncharov S.F. Moscow, VTsMK “Zachshita” Publ., 2016. 114 p. (In Russ.). ISBN 978-5-93064-164-1. EDN YHNEAL.
  11. Titov I.G., Goncharov S.F., Bobiy B.V., Akinshin A.V. Standard Options for Creating a Grouping of Medical Forces and Means in the Organization of Medical and Evacuation Support for the Victims of a Terrorist Attack. Meditsina Katastrof = Disaster Medicine. 2022;1:20-30 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.33266/2070-1004-2022-1-20-30
  12. Goncharov S.F., Bobiy B.V., Titov I.G., Akin’shin A.V., Samoylova M.S. Some Issues of Optimizing Management Activities in Organizing Provision of Medical Care to Victims of Terrorist Acts. Meditsina Katastrof = Disaster Medicine. 2021;2:29-34 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.33266/2070-1004-2021-2-29-34
  13. Kulnev S.V., Shelepov A.M., Lemeshkin R.N. Organization of Anti-Terrorist Measures to Ensure the Safety of Personnel and Patients in a Military Medical Organization. Medical-Biological and Socio-Psychological Problems of Safety in Emergency Situations. 2014;3:49-57 (In Russ.). EDN TBWBDD.
  14. Goncharov S.F., Avramenko V.A., Bobiy B.V. Casualties of Terrorist Attacks. Report 3. Meditsina Katastrof = Disaster Medicine. 2009;2:5-9 (In Russ.).


The material was received 19.07.23; the article after peer review procedure 03.10.23; the Editorial Board accepted the article for publication 22.12.23