DISASTER MEDICINE No. 4•2023

https://doi.org/10.33266/2070-1004-2023-4

Original article

Use of Different Computational Approaches to Modeling the Number of Sanitary Losses in Terrorist Acts in the World for the Period up to 2030

Shulenin N.S. 1, Lemeshkin R.N. 1, Fisun A.Ya. 2, Shulenin S.N. 1, Sorokin V.S. 3, Shatilo Yu.V. 1

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1 Kirov Military Medical Academy of the Ministry of Defense of Russia, St. Petersburg, Russian Federation

2 Kirov Military Medical Academy of the Ministry of Defense of Russia, Moscow’s Branch, Moscow, Russian Federation

3 442nd Military Clinical Hospital of the Ministry of Defense of Russia, St. Petersburg, Russian Federation

UDC 004.94;341.33 (355.292)

Pp. 11-17

Summary. The aim of the study is to investigate and to justify the application of various computational approaches to forecasting the value of probable sanitary losses as a result of terrorist acts in the world for the period up to 2030.

Materials and research methods. Materials of the study were archival data of the generalized database (GTD, Global Terrorism Database), containing information on more than 200 thousand cases of terrorist activities registered in 1970-2020. The methods and ways of committing terrorist attacks, as well as the objects they were aimed at were analyzed. The forecast model of the probable sanitary losses as a result of terrorist acts was built for the period from 2021 to 2030 inclusive.
The data set was analyzed by various operators of MS Excel spreadsheet aggregator using the functions “FORECAST SHEET”, “FORECAST”, “TREND”, “GROWTH”, “LINEST” and “LOGEST “.

Results of the study and their analysis. It is observed that the number of probable sanitary losses due to terrorist attacks in the world may increase by 35.28% by 2030. The methods of committing terrorist acts most significant in the long term were identified. These are the use of explosives in the form of industrial and improvised explosive devices, as well as firearms, especially against the military and police. It is concluded: the obtained results of the study should be used to correct the established structure of the incoming flow of sanitary losses and to determine the optimal composition of multidepartmental medical forces and means necessary to eliminate medical and sanitary consequences of terrorist acts.

Keywords: calculation method, different computational approaches, forecasting, medical evacuation support, medical forces and means, modeling, number of sanitary losses, terrorist acts

Conflict of interest. The authors declare no conflict of interest

For citation: Shulenin N.S., Lemeshkin R.N., Fisun A.Ya., Shulenin S.N., Sorokin V.S., Shatilo Yu.V. Use of Different Computational Approaches to Modeling the Number of Sanitary Losses in Terrorist Acts in the World for the Period up to 2030. Meditsina Katastrof = Disaster Medicine. 2023;4:11-17 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.33266/2070-1004-2023-4-11-17

 

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The material was received 19.07.23; the article after peer review procedure 03.10.23; the Editorial Board accepted the article for publication 22.12.23
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