DISASTER MEDICINE No. 3•2021
Risk-Based Causal Model of Risk Factors for Infection among Medical Personnel Involved in the Care Of Patients with the New COVID-19 Coronavirus Infection
Download the article in pdf format
Annenkova E.A.¹, Tikhonova O.A.¹, Biryukov A.P.¹, Baranov L.I.¹, Dibirgadzhiev I.G.¹, Sheyanov M.V.¹, Kasymova O.A.¹ Parinov O.V.1
1 State Research Center – Burnasyan Federal Medical Biophysical Center of Federal Medical Biological Agency, Moscow, Russian Federation
Abstract. The aim of the study is to develop and apply a mathematical model for assessing the risks of contamination of medical personnel involved in providing medical care to patients with COVID-19 in a “red zone” environment.
Materials and methods. Based on the analysis of informative signs and information on working conditions in the infectious disease department of the A.I. Burnazyan Federal Medical Biophysical Center of the Federal Medical and Biological Agency of Russia, a decision-making support system was developed to provide an objective assessment of the risks of infection for medical personnel when providing medical care in the “red zone”.
Results of the study and their analysis. The influence of various risk factors for infection of medical personnel involved in the provision of medical care to patients with new coronavirus infection COVID-19 was analyzed; the most significant risk factors were identified.
Keywords: dose-effect, mathematical model of infection risk assessment, medical personnel, new coronavirus infection COVID-19, patients, red zone
For citation: Annenkova E.A., Tikhonova O.A., Biryukov A.P., Baranov L.I., Dibirgadzhiev I.G., Sheyanov M.V., Kasymova O.A., Parinov O.V.
Risk-Based Causal Model of Risk Factors for Infection among Medical Personnel Involved in the Care Of Patients with the New COVID-19 Coronavirus Infection. Meditsina katastrof = Disaster Medicine. 2021;3:65-68 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.33266/2070-1004-2021-3-65-68
REFERENCES / СПИСОК ИСТОЧНИКОВ
- Black J.R.M., Bailey C., Przewrocka J., et al. COVID-19: the Case for Health-Care Worker Screening to Prevent Hospital Transmission. Lancet. 2020;395:1418-1420.
- Stilianakis N.I., Drossinos Y. Dynamics of Infectious Disease Transmission by Inhalable Respiratory Droplets. J R Soc Interface. 2010;7(50):1355-1366.
- Liu Y., Ning Z., Chen Y., Guo M., Liu Y., Gali N. K., Sun L., Duan Y., Cai J., Westerdahl D., Liu X., Ho K., Kan H., Fu Q., Lan K. Aerodynamic Characteristics and RNA Concentration of SARS-CoV-2 Aerosol in Wuhan Hospitals during COVID-19 Outbreak. BioRxiv 2020.03.08.982637.
- Loudon R., Brown L. Droplet Expulsion from the Respiratory Tract. Am Rev Respir Dis.1967;95(3):435–442.
- U.S. EPA. Exposure Factors Handbook 2011 Edition (Final Report). U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, EPA/600/R-09/052F, 2011.
- Ferioli M., Cisternino C., Leo V., Pisani L., Palange P., Nava S. Protecting Healthcare Workers from SARS-CoV-2 Infection: Practical Indications. European Respiratory Review. 2020;29(155):200068.
- Haas C., Rose J., Gerba C. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment. 2nd Edition. Wiley-Blackwell, 2014.
- Liu Y., Wang Z, Ren J., et al. COVID-19 Risk Assessment Decision Support System for General Practitioners: Design and Development Study. J Med Internet Res. 2020;22(6):e19786.
- Güler M.G., Geçici E. A Decision Support System for Scheduling the Shifts of Physicians During COVID-19 Pandemic. Comput Ind Eng. 2020;150:106874.
- Krausz M., Westenberg J.N., Vigo D., Spence R.T., Ramsey D. Emergency Response to COVID-19 in Canada: Platform Development and Implementation for eHealth in Crisis Management. JMIR Public Health Surveill. 2020;6(2):e18995.
- Adhikari U., Chabrelie A., Weir M., Boehnke K., McKenzie E., Ikner L., Wang M., Wang Q., Young K., Haas C.N., Rose J., Mitchell J. A Case Study Evaluating the Risk of Infection from Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in a Hospital Setting through Bioaerosols. Risk Anal.2019;39(12):2608-2624.
The material was received 26.03.21; the article after peer review procedure 12.07.21; the Editorial Board accepted the article for publication 10.09.21